Whether America will "abandon" Ukraine depends on how you define "abandonment"—and that’s a murky question in February 2025, with the Russia-Ukraine war dragging into its third year and U.S. policy shifting under a new Trump administration. Here’s my take, grounded in what’s happening now and where things might head.
Right now, the U.S. isn’t walking away entirely, but the signals are clear: support is being redefined, and it’s not what Ukraine wants to hear. Recent moves—like the U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh on February 18, 2025, excluding Ukraine—show a pivot. Trump’s team, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, has laid out a stance: no NATO membership for Ukraine, no push to reclaim pre-2014 borders, no U.S. troops on the ground, and a shift away from the U.S. footing most of the bill. That’s a tectonic change from the Biden era’s all-in backing—$175 billion in aid since 2022, per the Council on Foreign Relations, dwarfing Europe’s contributions. Now, Trump’s framing it as “Europe’s problem,” echoing his “America First” vibe from years past.
Does this mean abandonment? Not in the literal sense of cutting all ties. The U.S. still has skin in the game—Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy, was in Kyiv on February 19, listening to Zelenskyy after the Riyadh snub. And the State Department said in December 2024 that aid already in the pipeline should carry Ukraine through 2025. But the vibe’s different. Trump’s rhetoric—calling Zelenskyy a “dictator” and blaming Ukraine for not cutting a deal sooner—suggests he’s less about Ukraine’s sovereignty and more about wrapping this up fast, even if it means concessions to Putin. Posts on X reflect this unease, with some calling it a “disastrous shift” and others seeing it as inevitable.
Europe’s freaking out—France, Germany, and the UK issued a joint statement on February 19 pushing back, and Macron’s hosting an emergency meeting on Monday. They’re worried the U.S. is stepping back, leaving them to pick up the slack against a Russia that’s still pounding Ukraine’s east. Vietnam’s system comes to mind here: a one-party state that’s kept stability through control and pragmatism. If the U.S. dials down, Ukraine might have to lean harder into that kind of resilience—or cut a deal that leaves it weaker.
Will the U.S. fully ditch Ukraine? I doubt it—too much geopolitical capital’s invested, and Congress still has bipartisan support for some level of involvement. But “abandon” could mean leaving Ukraine to fend off Russia with less cash and no security umbrella. If Trump’s talks with Putin (slated soon) lock in a peace that screws Kyiv—like ceding territory without a fight—Zelenskyy’s warnings about a “Russian disinformation space” might not be far off. Europe might step up, but it’s not united or flush enough to replace the U.S. entirely.
So, my gut? America won’t abandon Ukraine outright, but it’s scaling back to a point that might feel like betrayal to Kyiv. The war’s at a grind, Russia’s got the upper hand, and Trump’s not in the mood for endless wars. Ukraine’s not getting dumped, but it might be left on the couch with a note saying, “Figure it out with the neighbors.” What do you think—does that line up with how you see it playing out?